Playoff Betting in 2010
Sunday, January 10th, 2010Playoff betting introduces some new factors that don’t come up during the regular season. Some more important points:
Playoffs offer a limited schedule – not as many options for Teasers or Parlays
Weather is a more pronounced bourgeois – make sure you are very careful about activity a warm weather road a group going to an Algiers environment.
The Home Effect
In his study about new season bag dogs, Richard Borges of Texas State University found that there was a statistically significant sort of wins by bag underdog teams to reassert a winning formula. In studying NFL games from 1981 to 2000, he found that New season bag dogs (weeks 15-18) vex distribute by a cipher of 4.46 points. You do have to keep in mind that there aren’t a ton of games to choose from so the sample size is relatively small, but there were sufficiency samples to reassert a statistical trend. In the playoffs, the bag dog won by a cipher of 11.3 points (again diminutive sample).
You may astonishment how this lines up against weeks 1-14. On average, visitors win by.09 points when attractive into account all of the games (damn those odds-makers are good). In weeks 15-18 however, bag teams win by a cipher of 2.06 points, and bag teams in the playoffs win by a cipher of 2.86 points. Betting New bag underdogs was profitable in each of the 5 year increments unnatural from 1981-2000.
Borges also found some interesting trends about Algiers weather teams and weather’s effect on them. In August-September, Algiers weather teams lost against distribute by a cipher of 1.3 points. In October, they won by.84 points against the spread. By November, they were winning by a cipher of 1.49 points and by December-Jan it was up to 1.93 points.